We've seen the rise of Kepler. At first, the GK104 GPU was everything a gamer could want. 1536 CUDA Cores, 256-bit bandwidth, great gaming performance, great overclocking headroom, quieter than the reference HD 7970 at launch. Truly, it was a good card and a great GPU.
It's real performance secret came from another source, though. It's low energy consumption, and thus lower heat output. We saw enthusiasts and fanboys saying that AMD consumed too much energy, and output too much heat. Although the cost of electricity isn't too much or too bad, it's worth noting that heat output can throttle your GPU, damage it, and it can build inside your case if you don't have a adequate airflow (which is a common problem in SFF cases, like mATX or mini-ITX).
Thus, Kepler proved itself to be a reliable and efficient GPU. Enter Maxwell, the next architecture from Nvidia. Right now, the GM107. It's a GPU that sits somewhere between the GK106 and GK107 in terms of size (GK107 is 118 square millimeters, and GK106 is 221 square millimeters, and GM107 is 156 square millimeters).
You can check the comparison here:
http://videocardz.com/49517/nvidia-maxwell-gm107-gpu-pictured-detailed
In terms of performance, at least from this Videocardz.com article, here's what you can expect:
http://videocardz.com/49498/nvidia-geforce-gtx-750-gtx-750-ti-preview-leaks
Now, from what I gather, this is a game changer for Nvidia, and AMD should be scared (unless they've got something they've been keeping secret).
The GK107 in the GTX 650 Ti Boost requires at least 1x PCI-E 6-pin power connector. Given that there's about 75W coming from the PCI-E x16 slot, and 75W from the PCI-E 6-pin connector, that's 150W maximum power draw. The GM107 in the GTX 750 Ti is rumored to have performance between the GTX 650 Ti Boost and the GTX 660, even though it's only using 128-bit bandwidth. The GTX 750 Ti is rumored to not need a PCI-E connector (6-pin or 8-pin) whatsoever, meaning it can run at full performance at just 75W of power draw.
And most importantly of all, in spite of consuming less power and giving the same or similar performance, it's still running on 28nm process here. And that's the scary thing (for AMD).
In other words, they've halved the power draw and increased performance on a smaller die size, which has obvious heat output ramifications... but most impressively, they've done so using only 28nm and while decreasing memory bandwidth from 192-bit to 128-bit.
Now, when we go to 20nm, this will be even more dramatic. Why? Because 20nm will have twice the transistor density than 28nm. (To explain why, the nanometer fabrication process refers to the size of each transistor. 20nm has twice the transistor density as 28nm, because if you have 140nm x 140nm to fit as many transistors as you can, you can fit twenty-five 28nm transistors in a 5x5 configuration, or forty-nine 20nm transistors in a 7x7 configuration.)
Having greater transistor density means the transistors can be moved further apart to increase energy efficiency (to decrease electron leakage, which causes heat output). Smaller transistors also allow for lower voltage, which also helps minimize electron leakage (which, again, helps decrease heat output). It also allows for more CUDA Cores (or Stream Processors, in AMD's case), more TMUs (Texture Mapping Units), ROPs, and more.
And having lower temperatures has a big impact on how high/fast you can clock your GPU, as well as how much airflow you need to cool your GPU (which helps define how quiet or loud your GPU will be under load, but it isn't the only factor). But it's much more important in SFF builds, laptops and mobile devices, where heat output can make or break a system or mobile device (smartphone, tablet, etc).
Given all of this, if Nvidia launches a 4GB model as their launch flagship (like the GK104-based GTX 680 was, until the GK110-based GTX TITAN came along to take the crown), using a 512-bit bandwidth, we can assume that it's going to be a beast of a card when 20nm is released.
There's reason to have a lot of hope for Nvidia right now, assuming all these rumors about 20nm power consumption and the specs/release/performance of the GTX 750 Ti (on 28nm) prove true.
On a side note, I find the GTX 750 Ti launch to be very plausible. Why? Because the GTX 650 Ti Boost and GTX 650 Ti Non-Boost are virtually out of stock almost everywhere I was looking, and many aren't being re-stocked. That can mean either Nvidia is either going out of business, they don't want to make money by selling people their graphics cards, or they're preparing a new GPU for launch. And unless you've been living under a rock for the past 10 years (Patrick?), you'll know the the former two aren't realistic in the slightest, making the latter the most plausible explanation.
And that's why AMD should be hoping Nvidia doesn't come out with guns blazing at launch, offering a huge GPU die size, huge memory bandwidth, lots of high-clocked VRAM, and more. Because if they do, AMD is going to be in trouble unless they've got around to fixing their heat output. Obviously, AMD has long been aware of their heat output woes and terrible reference cooler design, so I'm hopeful AMD will talk to one of their partners to see if they might consider designing a reference cooler that uses multiple fans (like the HD 7990 did). That could help alleviate some of the noise and heat issues.
When 20nm comes out, it's going to be a very interesting launch. We might only see 20nm in Q3 (July 'til September), but when it comes out, we'll probably be seeing some very impressive stuff.
On a side note, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.) has announced they're in mass production of 20nm chips. Meaning we might just see 20nm coming out soon, or at least we'll see leaks coming out soon (I wonder if the leaks will appear on chinese forums first? hhmmm). You can check that article here:
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/display/20140116220015_TSMC_Begins_Volume_Production_of_Chips_Using_20nm_Process_Technology.html
You can also check out WCCF Tech's slightly older post (3 months old) here, describing AMD trying to come out with their new 14nm GPUs in H1 2014 (meaning before June is over... oh please, by the Bethesda Game Studios gods of gaming, let this not be like the launch of Mantle-enabled drivers) :
http://wccftech.com/tsmc-begins-volume-production-20nm-chips-q1-2014-16nm-finfet-chips-q1-2015/
Anyways guys, I hope this is a good blog was a good read. And I don't want to sound like a fanboy for Nvidia (I do love AMD, and I always like to cheer for them, but from the leaks, I have to say there's more reason to be optimistic for Nvidia). So, I'd love feedback on this. (Did I leave out anything important? Should I include any other links? Should I have added more historical context for die shrink launches, such as 55nm to 40nm, and 40nm to 28nm? And should I have mentioned performance difference at launch, and then after a few years after the drivers had been optimized for those GPUs, tgheir architecture, and their bugs have been ironed out?)