I consider the year 2023 the year all of the patents from 2002 expired and with the patents on 10GBE ASIC designs going into the public domain, I think 10GBE will be less of an Enterprise-Exclusive standard. Think of it like 3D printers, we could have had consumer 3D printers, but the only reason why we have them now is because the patents expired.
Anyway, I look forward to the price on 10GBE tanking.
Another thing to consider is newer technologies making 10GBE less profitable and maybe prices for regular consumers and enthusiasts would be lowered to push adoption rate.
One of the things delaying higher speed ethernet, in my opinion, is wireless. With desktop PC sales decreasing, phone/tablet/portable sales increasing, and the push for smaller/lighter/thinner devices, I would not be surprised in the least if in the next decade or two wireless will become as fast or even faster than the wired standards. Once that happens it wouldn't make sense for the average consumer to go for ethernet when wireless is just as fast and they don't have to have their device physically tethered to something.
Adding on to that, I think we'd need to see gigabit or higher speeds to homes before the average consumer will even care about 10 Gb ethernet, and thus actually have competitive pricing. I mean in my entire state there's maybe 200 residences that have access to gigabit speeds, and that's at a minimum of $70/month. To the average consumer gigabit ethernet is more than plenty simply because they don't have anything that can actually saturate that.
After all, the people who are into 10 GbE in pretty much any situation can't be considered "average" consumers when it comes to this type of stuff.
nobody in the consumer market wants wired internet, let alone a need for 10Gig
Companies make to much money putting together $100 wifi routers with fastE on it, only to last maybe a year before they die. And consumers don't have any devices to take advantage of 10Gig.
Saturating a full 1Gbps cable at home for a large percentage of users in the world is hard enough, let alone 10Gbps... most users would see no additional benefit to it. Hell it's hard enough to saturate a gigabit line in a business environment except for trunks and server based connections.
Ethernet in terms of internal networks, or Internet? I mean 10Gb/s internal networking isnt that far away i think. I dont think that i will take that long before even affordable home use routers will have 10Gb/s lan ports. There are allready motherboards who include 10Gb/s nic´s.
The total number of devices being purchased is almost certainly increasing each year. While market share is important, I'd like to see raw numbers comparing 2015 Desktop sales to 2008 Desktop sales. It may have actually gone down, but I seriously doubt it more than halved.
PC sales have actually been declining for a few years now.
Halved? No.
Declined? Yes.
EDIT: I should mention that there's still a fuckton of PCs being sold, but I would have to question a company really focusing hard on a declining market.
It's also worth noting that most any desktop from 2008 is still more than enough to browse the internet and check your e-mail, aka 90% of peoples use for desktops, so I'm sure a decent amount of the decline in sales is because of this. Even if most people are moving away from them.
I don't think we are actually that many years out. I think we're getting some signs that the technology is trickling down. There's that Asus 10 port Switch with 2 of them being 10Gbps capable at $250. In a couple years, I think something like that Asus could be sub $100 and full 8 port 10Gbps could be $250. I also think that 10Gbps ethernet being added on to some high end X99 boards and being provided by bundled cards on Z170 boards is a sign that it's coming.
Also, we got 1Gbps ethernet far before 1Gbps internet was available. Now, for some of us, 1Gbps is a thing. 10Gbps is the only logical progression and I don't think its more than 2 or 3 generations/years out.
Yeah, it's kinda amusing at how much performance has outstripped the actual performance needed. I can browse internet reasonably well on a $35 Raspberry Pi 2, but I see desktops with beefcake i7s being marketed to soccer moms.
I only see the decline continuing though. I don't know of many people under 30 that have a desktop at all, and I actually know a surprisingly large amount of people that don't a computer at all. Everything they do can be done on their phone, and if it's anything more complex they do it on a computer at work or university.
Yeah, I'm not sure how I feel about it to be honest. Part of me likes that desktops are going back to an enthusiast only market. But the smaller the market the less money is going to be in it, this will probably only make the fact that desktops aren't advancing very fast even worse.