Ukrainian crysis

OK...that going to be quite a long one.

I want to say that from begging, i will be a bit bias because i come from a country next to Ukraine, (Moldova) and we also have been stranded and terrorized by Russia. Actually Romania was forced to split in two parts by the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact and the other part of it now it's known as Moldova.

And in my opinion is that the history repeats its self, same thing happened to my country, they were losing control over Moldova so they occupy a part of it and they don't let it go till there will be war. This exact thing happen to another country that i con not remember the name of it right now. And now look... 38 people already died in Ukraine (mostly pro-Russians rebels), now in even a bit afraid for my siblings back there, but then it will take some of the stress of my country which could lead us to Europe (we have been waiting for this moment for literally ages). Now I don't even know what to think.


So what do you think of whats happening in that "wild west" of the Europe? What do you think will happen and why do you  think this is going on????

Sorry for any grammar or spelling errors. 

For me Ukraine belongs to Russia (СНГ) more than to Europe. And i can also understand Putin and he is afraid of Europe surrounding Russia and crippling the military defense. USA will start a war if someone will try to cut off their military & strategic points (sad but true).

Currently i live in Germany and i was born in Kazachstan so i know the area and the usual problems pretty good. What Europe wants is a nice infrastructure and strong economy so we can keep it running here, that will make our € strong and the dollar weak. Each country with economic problems will cause Europe to lose even more money because we have to keep the € strong. And for the people in the country its pretty hard too - the euro is expensive, they just dont have enough money to keep it up with the stable EU members like Germany, France and Netherlands. And Russia is doing a pretty good job keeping it calm and try to defend their interests without starting a war.I will keep supporting Russia in this situation because i trust them to be smart enough and keep the civil people alive. 

If you can read russian, i can answer in russian too.

 

Так что для меня Россия всё ещё то что нужно в этом регионе. Европа - это европа, у нас своего барахла хватает. И мы также зависим от России, думаете чей газ мы тут сжигаем и чьи деньги тут поддерживают значительные части экономики?

Нам нужна стабильность и тишина, а разбиратся со странами с разбитой в хлам экономикой нам уже надоело. Греция, Ирландия, весь восточный сектор - они не могут удерживать тот же рост который хочет Германия, Франция и прочие развитые страны со стабильной экономикой. 

 Вот зачем нам Украина то упёрлась? Это разбитая страна с 2мя языками, кучей проблем и непонятной ненавистью к русским. Пора прекращать детский сад и работать тихо и мирно - а потом присоединятся к Европе на равных условиях, где есть что дать и что взять. Европа кстать тоже не резиновая)

For me Ukraine belongs to Russia (СНГ) more than to Europe.

I would think Ukraine belongs to Ukraine personally...  They're not without their problems, but that doesn't mean that Russia should just annex them.  Even a bloodless invasion is still an invasion, make no mistake.

Agreed. I mean maybe you could argue for Crimea but as for Ukraine as a whole? No. There is a Russia speaking part of the population yes but a majority of Ukraine is Ukrainian. Clearly they didn't want to be closer with  Russia. Maybe incase they decide to starve have to the population to death again. 

This reminds me a lot of Hitler's annexation of the Sudetenland. A small minority of another country gets agitated. The foreign power annexes it to "protect the ethnic minority" then eventually ends up marching across the entire country. 

I mean Ukraine is a russian-speaking country (not the only language, but the main for most people) and they should solve their internal problems first and then take the external problems and solve them instead of asking for help in the EU. Ukraine is so close to Russia, they share so much stuff and Ukraine is the main part of the russian military setup. Russia has a right to do what they are doing - there is so much stuff involved and so many russian people are still sitting in the Ukraine. Russia just wants to keep their people safe and dont lose the military point. The whole russian marine is sitting there. Ukraine just cant join EU and cut off the whole russian marine forces without any resistance. 

What do you think will happen when Europe will cut off all american military bases here? 

Its complicated and Ukraine has done everything wrong and now they expect Europe to help them somehow - but we cant. And Russia ist just doing its best to protect their people and their military without actually using it.

And i dont like the EU position here. Ukraine is trying to force Europe to actually step into this problem - and Ukraine is not a part of the EU (for now). Its not our beer - we have nothing to do there, 

I know this is gonna be too long for most people to read but here we go anyway, Massive wall of text, 994 words, inbound.

 

I'm sorry what? I assume you're Russia so I can see you arguing for your point here but I'm afraid you are mistaken.

78% of the Ukrainian population identifies as ethnically Ukrainian with only 17% identifying as Russian. Ukrainian is the official language of the country spoken by over 68% of the population. There is a Russian minority in the East but that is it.   

To say that Ukraine is closer to Russia is false and an over simplification of the situation the country exists in. I would argue that Ukraine isn't closer to the West or Russia. They have been pulled in either direction for centuries. 

Around the end of WWI the pulling began in earnest. Various factions including those from the USSR, Poland, Ukrainian nationalists and more groups fought over the land and 1.5 million people died. Eventually the faction siding with the USSR one and Ukraine was absorbed into the USSR. It was hardly a peaceful event. 

Then, from 1932-1933 over 10 million Ukrainians died of starvation thanks to Stalin, ironic because Ukraine is the world's third largest exporter of grain. Then Stalin deported the entire native population of Crimea, the Tatars, to central Asia. 

He then proceeded to move large amounts of Ethnic Russians into the Crimea and industrialized eastern part of the country essentially to rape the country of its natural and industrial resources as well as to give the USSR a buffer zone from NATO and a port on the Black Sea because in case you hadn't realized, Stalin was a bad dude who more or less wanted to hold back the western expansion under the Marshall Plan long enough so he could build his forces up and likely invade Western Europe. Although the invasion never took place it is likely these were his motivations. 

After his death, Khrushchev transferred the Crimea to Ukraine because of his ties to the country and the fact that Ukraine is where Crimea gets all of its food, water and electricity. Plus it is easier to manage a place that you are actually physically connected to which Russia isn't. 

So after the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, there was a referendum held in Ukraine in which 90% of the population including a majority of those in Crimea voted for independence from Russia. 

2004 is when a lot of the trouble began. In an election that was widely regarded by outside observers and those in the country as fraudulent, Viktor Yanukovych was elected president. He was incredibly Russian friendly. 

This lead to the Orange Revolution where Viktor Yushchenko led massive street protests in Kiev. Where he was nearly killed by a mysterious poison, which many point to be Russia's doing as there were some eerie similarities between it and a few other poison deaths linked to Russia and Putin. 

Eventually, there was another election and this time the election, which was declared open and free, Yushchenko won and by a hefty margin. 

However, he wasn't a very good president. Despite being an economist, he wasn't actually that good at running the economy. Then, as he was friendly with Europe, Putin shut off the gas supply to the country which had far reaching and negative effects in 2006. 

By 2010, in open and free elections Yanukovych ran and won. All was well for quite a while then suddenly, he changed his mind and decided that he didn't want to go closer to Europe and abandoned long standing negotiations with the EU and announced Ukraine would ally with Russia. 

This was massively unpopular and protests erupted in Kiev. They eventually grew until February 20 when many were killed by military and police. Suddenly Yanukovych disappeared the next day, taking with him a sizeable portion of the countries wealth and leaving the protesters in charge. Then installed a new interim president to prepare for new elections, at which point Putin marched forces into Crimea to protect "Ethnic Russians and Military installations." The regular forces were proceeded by mysterious soldiers not identifying with any nation who claimed to be Ukrainians but eventually turned out to be Russian Special Forces. This violated Ukraine's territorial integrity which is a big deal.

Eventually in an illegal vote that was most likely fraudulent the population of Crimea voted to ally with Russia. 

Then lately, the same mysterious soldiers began showing up in the Eastern part of the country and rallying protesters to their side and invading and destroying government buildings. Just like in Crimea earlier. It is likely Russia may "move forces in to protect ethnic Russians" like they did in Crimea. They may even take over the entire country. 

Why? Because of natural resources and also because Russia, which is at a military and economic disadvantage to the west and is much weaker, doesn't want their neighbor allying with the EU and possibly NATO. That may put western forces on their doorstep. More importantly however, it would open up trade even more with the west and Russia goods and more importantly Russian natural gas would be less desirable hurting the Russian economy and Putin's own personal wealth. 

That is what is going on right now and I'm not saying one side is better than the other. I'm just trying to illustrate that the pull between East and West isn't new. I mean the word Ukraine means borderland...

What Ukraine needs is stability and long term stability so it can grow and form its own identity and form healthy relationships with both the west and Russia without being controlled by either. 

 

Most of this information can be verified by a simple Google search but let me know if you want specifics. Political Science and International Relations major here and I have done independent research on the topic. Fairly qualified here and I'm pretty sure everything above is correct. I apologize for any oversimplification or for leaving anything out. 

 

I mean Ukraine is a russian-speaking country (not the only language, but the main for most people) and they should solve their internal problems first and then take the external problems and solve them instead of asking for help in the EU... (snip)

People of Russian descent only make up around 17% of the Ukrainian population.  And Russian is the first language of only 29% of the population, which is far from the majority.  It should also be pointed out that the main reason why the number is even as high as it is, is because the Russian government actively suppressed the Ukrainian language while promoting Russian for many, many years.

Yes, Russia has a number of military instillations in Ukraine (most, if not all in Crimea), most notably Sevastopol, which is the main base of operation for the Russian Black Sea Fleet.  However, they had a lease agreement with Ukraine that runs through 2017, and I believe they signed an agreement to extend that out another 25 years, so that's a moot point.  

Even if that wasn't the case, the Russians recently built a large naval base in Novorossiysk that could easily house the Black Sea Fleet.  In fact, it was likely built in case the Ukrainians chose not to renew the lease on Sevastopol.  So protecting military assets wasn't really a dire issue.  It's not like Crimea was the only place that fleet could put to port.  There's plenty of Black Sea coastline in Russia.

What do I think would happen if Europe cut off US access it's military bases in Europe?  Largely nothing.  The US isn't going to invade Germany if they don't renew the lease on Ramstein airbase.  At most, you'd hear some bitching from the Republicans, and some of the Tea Party congressmen would drop snide comments about nuking on Berlin.  That's about it.  Quite frankly, I WISH Germany would cancel the lease on the base.  Same goes for most of our over seas bases.  We don't need them.  At most, they are slightly better staging points for potential regional conflicts.  Germany isn't a threat anymore.  Italy isn't a threat anymore.  Japan isn't a threat anymore.  There's little need to have 100,000 US troops stationed across those three countries.

Now, how exactly is Russia protecting it's people?  Who was in danger before the invasion(s) that isn't now?  The only thing that Russia is likely trying to protect is their influence on the old Soviet block states, and by extension their control over a massively corrupt system of government.  That's about it.  They don't like Western ideals (which is funny, because Russia is about the biggest example of Crony Capitalism I can think of...), and want to keep them off their door step.  Bad influence and all that.

The Russian government is beyond corrupt, and the best way to remain corrupt is to not have a more free and open society right next door.  Not that Ukraine was likely to ever be a shining beacon of unimpeachable democracy and oversight, but still.  Russia didn't like the direction things were heading, so they took action.  It wasn't in the interest of the Russian people.  It wasn't in the interest of the ethnic Russians in Ukraine.  It was simply in the interest of Vladimir Putin, his regime and other wealthy Russian concerns.  That's pretty much it.

I think between you and I we have this shit covered lol. Excellent post. 

Same to you.  Always good to have a Poly Sci and International Relations major around when talking Geo Politics lol.

I have to correct you on one point, 30% may not be a majority, but it may be infact probably is a majority in many areas throughout ukraine, Its hard to imagine that the russian speaking segment of the population is spread evenly throughout ukraine, and just doesnt speak to those who dont speak russian. Indeed it is entirely possible that some of the people in russian speaking areas that are not 'ethnically russian' are simply russians who have been assimilated.

Well, yeah? Of course there are going to be areas where Russian speakers are the majority. Culturally similar populations tend to cluster. However, we were talking about Ukraine as a whole, not cherry picking certain areas, so I'm not sure how that applies to the conversation.

Maybe it's the bender I'm just coming off of, but I don't think you actually corrected anything? Nothing you said contradicted anything I said far as i can tell. You more made a "yes, but..." type of statement. Of course, I'm still a little drunk and have been up for 24 hours, so maybe I'm missing something. Been known to happen.

First of all...Ukraine is not a Russian speaking country, yes the languages are similar and they have different accents...in fact in some parts of Ukraine you can get beaten up for speaking Russian, this is how much are some Ukrainians tired of hearing that they are a Russian speaking country.

Now remember what this whole thing started of from. Ukraine were about to sight the contract with EU and Russia just came from behind and pressured them into not sighing it, that's why the protests began. So you are saying that Russia had the right to do that ???

Oh and ya they did have their military bases down there but that does not give them the right to invade and take control of some of the cities.

Just think of this, Russia invaded them regions with the reason of "protecting their citizens". And if they were actually allowed to do that they could sent some troops to United Kingdom, United Sates and other countries which have a high number of Russians living there.

Plus the Russia forced Crimean citizen to make a so called "fair" vote (how the f*** can this be fair when u have a Russian gun to your head????

After all don't forget this is communism, it may look all nice and fair on the outside but is has a lot of international blood stains on the inside.

Sorry if there was any grammar/spelling errors. 

Well said my friend!

Well this OP was corrected with the utmost precision.

So since Ukraine belongs to the Ukrainians, what do they want ?

Alinging them self’s either with Russia or Europe will have upsides & downsides. If they choose Russia, they have to deal with Putins ultra authoritarian Vision a new Soviet Union. If they align them self’s with Europe they will have to adept to the European bureaucracy & regulatory monster.

If they had clever politicians they could be a non partisan & independent buffer between the EU and Russia, keeping the peace, ... for a small fee.

A majority of Ukrainians want to be closer to the EU. For all its drawbacks, the EU would really stimulate Ukraine's economy and help the people there. 

However, like I said previously, Ukraine needs stability. It needs stability so it and its people can grow to for their own identity and healthy relationships with both the west and Russia without being controlled by either. 

A majority of Ukrainians want to be closer to the EU

Assuming that's true (& not propaganda) the problem is solved then.

It's the 21 century -> we're done playing empire, people get the right of self determination.

& Last I checked Ukrainians were people...

Well since they've made jews register I'm just waiting for world war 3: this time with nuclear action.

This looks and feels like an attempt to recreate a new Soviet Union and a lot of the comments from Russians and pro-russian rebels* pretty much back that view up. Most of it was talk about the "good old days", you know when people were starving to death and being grabbed in the middle of the night never to be seen again.

* fun fact: I was listening to story on this at work and  a journalist asked a pro-russian rebel the name of the town they had just occupied the local gov't building in and he had no idea where he even was, so local movement I doubt it.

Well you guys destroyed the pro-russian guy :).