Productivity tanked. Rise might be rushed?

So, a few years back, there was flooding in Taiwan, that among other things (like human beings,) took out a lot of the HDD fabs. Once the water damage was patched to a level, production ramped up a bit too quick.

So there was a pent up demand while factories were flooded, then the quick ramp up produced lower quality parts, shoved out the door to address the backlog.
I’m thinking Seagate, who lost a hell of reputation due to a few batches of 3tb DOOM drives.

At the moment, China is experiencing a pandemic, and this is affecting many areas.
But most relevant here is the parts that aren’t being made, put on boats, to arrive in the west in a few months time.
So does anyone know of any scarcity yet? And am I being crazy, thinking in the aftermath, there might be a slew of sub standard stuff hitting the market?

I mean, I really hope people get well soon, and that the quarantined avoided world war Wu…

So, I’m thinking, best case, virus spread stops, productivity down a bit, but apart from a rise in prices for a bit, back to normal.

Worst case, I don’t have to worry, because we all fall victim, except 20% who are immune, and they will be more busy burying the dead and making babies, to worry about Big Navi or hardware in general…

I just bought a set of SD cards and some 16TB drives for a media NAS because of that line of thought. Apple is gonna keep making stuff so they want a good chunk of all the things, new consoles are hitting this year and those want to be able to download hundreds of gigs for games.

Of course total speculation but I would not be surprised to see all kinds of storage go up in price dramatically this year.

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You don’t think there’s going to be much of an affect on components?
We are pretty lucky that prices are pretty good right now, and not everything comes from China, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a tail of effects even once it all blows over.
And that some of the stuff will be rushed in to production- QA does exist, but unless you specifically keep on top of it, the quality really tanks

Depends on how much of the products are actually new ones. If they just pick up where they left off it shouldn’t be that big of a deal, I think. But you could be right of course. Even stronger argument for us to buy the stuff we need over the coming months right now.

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Hmm, I guess the factories will still be in place, and materials still available.

Good point

Doesn’t mean it won’t be used as an excuse to ramp up prices :wink:

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I don’t think our worries should be production problems or shortages of any kind.

Keep calm, don’t be unreasonable and follow the WHO guidelines.


Transport from China to EU (Hong Kong ↔ Rotterdam) take 40 to 60 days by ship. So any delays or low quantity production will be seen with two months delay. Not sure who shipping times are from China to the US, would imagine it being about the same.

Steve is probably one of the better informed people on the subject:

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Not all products come from China but a lot of small but essential components do.

Stuff like screws, clips, caps, etc.

Also complete systems. Both hp and Lenovo have plants in Wuhan specifically

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