You guys ever look into this? Not a lot of people talking about this since the NatGas boom but it's still out there looming over our oil based society. Your viewers might benefit from a quick primer vid or a story on "The Tek".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
This is a short vid from the author of "The Party's Over" http://youtu.be/OIAFRzaHnb4
I have worked in the Oil sector for a while now. We are still far off from peak oil. My last job I was seeing more oil being brought in than could be refined. Also the new well stimulation techniques have only really been used in the USA. Most of the western world brought their usage levels down. Peak oil will happen but it will be the most painful for India and China.
Peak Oil has been predicted for years, and every year oil production rises, or more oil reserves are found. It'll happen eventually but I'm not sure about it occurring within my lifetime.
Citing: http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=53&aid=1, I respectfully disagree. The relevant data appears at the last row beginning with "World."
The "...and every year oil production rises..." statement from your post is only marginally accurate if you do not include the drop in world production in 2009. I say marginally because till now( from 2008-2014) the rate of oil production as well as consumption had been growing ~7%/yr throughout the 20th century. Not what we've seen since the 2009 financial collapse which has been < (2-3)%/yr.
This might be downer, but all you got to do is open a tab and hit some .gov sites while it's playing - it mostly checks out. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFLgjbKfypI&list=PL61CB8F3CA74DDF3B
I don't know if this topic fits in The Tek, but this is an interesting post nonetheless.
That video was before the discovery of Bakken, Eagleford Shale, and Cline Shale. Also there have been massive breakthroughs in directional drilling and well stimulation.
And lets not forget the Arckaringa Basin in Australia.
We're a long way off from peak oil. Here in the US, we have more than 3 times the proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia in the form of shale oil in the Midwest. That's a conservative estimate. If anything, I would expect there to be another oil boom sometime soon.
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG414.pdf
Bakken = 3.65 billion barrels
http://energy.usgs.gov/OilGas/AssessmentsData/NationalOilGasAssessment.aspx#3820109-multimedia
Eagleford Shale a quick search only gives a location in south Texas. For that area USGS gives lists 746 conventional mmbo. Cline, again search tells its part of the Permian Basin. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Thus:([Bakken]+[Eagleford]+[Cline])/18.5 million barrels per day US consumption = 595 days!
Consumption: http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=5&aid=2
These #'s are for conventional oil. I think for sake of argument its fair to note that for the recovery of shale and tar sands the process is encumbered with significant energy expenditure. Those two sources require heating water to or past boiling temperatures which require power.
Numbers for shale and tar respectively are close to those for conventional. Also there are reserves all over the country just not as significant as Bakken. At 3.2 mmbo for Prudoe Bay you can add another 177 days.
Consider among the largest breakers in your electrical panel is the one for the h2o heater. It's typically a 2 pole 30 amp. So in essence some oil goes back in to get any out. Where economics governs the development of a resource it tells us that recovering easy to get at crude is near or at exhaustion.
Look I wouldn't worry, there is plenty of hydrocarbons that can be extracted, we keep discovering new ways of extracting them, such as drilling horizontally and cracking rocks to release gas. And then we have methane, which is largely unutilized and from memory is something like 95%+ of all hydrocarbons, japan is investigating comercial exploitation of methane hydrates (methane locked up in a frozen layer under the sea and mixed with water).
Then keep in mind that countries like brazil for instance have largely moved away from so called 'fossil fuels', by adopting a flexifuel standard, and using much cheaper biofuels (ethanol I think). First world countries are more than capable of paying more for the utilization of agrarian resources to produce fuel for our automobiles than people in those 2nd and 3rd world countreis are capable of paying, if it had been used to produce food, so that they can live.
Those aren't the only places we are getting oil from and there is a lot more in those deposits that are unconventional. The heating isn't the greatest expenditure of power in Texas it is the pressures required. That usage of energy is only temporary until the well starts producing. Stabilization of light hydrocarbons isn't too difficult either.
Also if the prices would become high enough the maket would enable alternative fuel sources. Since those sources are still more expensive peak oil has not happened. Doomsday scenarios highly attractive when a person thinks they are the only one who knows about it. We have survived an ice age with only sticks and rocks. I think we will be OK.
I'm not so sure about the whole 100 years of cheap oil thing but thank you all for your responses! I'll be writing a paper at the end of the semester on the costs of non-traditional hydrocarbon fuel sources, ie shale oil and tar sands. I was going to focus on peak oil but have decided against it for many of the reasons listed above. The reason why I suggested the tek cover this topic is because it is absolutely related to the PC industry in myriad ways. While most of realize that oil products in all it's forms are the keystone of modern civilization, John Q public doesn't. All the same if we were better informed we might be able to help those around us understand the importance of this topic. Thanks again!
I'm more concerned about the air quality than global warming.
If there would be an increase in consumption (which thankfully hasn't been so, since newer cars are more economical) it still wouldn't be a problem because eventually people will wake up and switch to renewable energy.
I used to be completely ignorant about cars and oil and always grinned when prices went up (thinking it will discourage people from buying cars, it actually is the other way around). It's not as bad as most conspiracies tend to picture peak oil but still there's loads of stuff we can do to mitigate it's impact. How about we start as lowering individual consumption.
I think we don't need oil but the economy dose.
Theres so many other alternative fuels such as hydrogen and electric. But the transition to theses fuels is the going to be the hardest issue.
http://youtu.be/OIAFRzaHnb4 idk if Logan or Wendal actually read any of this but I would love to hear from you all on this and how it might impact PC gaming and consumer electronics.
People will never "Wake Up" as you say because until green energy is cheaper without being subsidized to death with our tax money It will never take off. The mfree market will always buy the cheapest form of power. As it should.
Both Oil and Coal benefit from massive subsidies as well, and they seem to have taken off just fine... so I don't believe that's as important an issue as you may think.
A part of me want peak oil to be close, so we would have to invest in alternative energy sources like Thorium.. But the other part of me doesn't want to buy a new car...
Look, the Corporate world doesnt want you to live off the grid. They want to keep you a slave to their services. Which mostly invovles stifling any tech that may allow you to do so. If you think of your house as a powerplant and build in such a manner. Is it cheap?
The answer is no. Is it worth it? The answer is, Yes. Several less corporate masters beating you over the head. Quality of life improves.