Level1 News June 20 2018: Model S Sales on Fire | Level One Techs


This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://level1techs.com/video/level1-news-june-20-2018-model-s-sales-fire

CentOS 4 lyfe yo!

Interesting bit of info for the title to put it in perspective.

I put this together pretty quickly, but this is a quick set of numbers of the number of car fires in 2015 in the US compared to the number of all Tesla fires in 2015 and all Tesla fires from inception until 2015. Total cars are total cars in the US in 2015, and total teslas in 2015.

Number of fires total cars 1 fire per number of cars
All cars (US) 174,000 (2015) 263,610,000 1:1,515
Tesla’s (World Wide) 1 (2015) 107,228 1:107,228
Tesla’s (World Wide) 7 (up to 2015) 107,228 1:15,318


When they introduced Autopilot, many people were claiming that Tesla was producing self driving cars that don’t self drive. Then it was just a misunderstanding. It was just bad nomenclature for driver assist. Now it’s the tide is turning and Tesla is probably going to be guilty of what they were accused of before.

The problem with all autonomous systems is that the last 20% of development is 80% of the cost and work. Though there is exponential increases in feedback in the data exchange, it’s not enough to counter the complexity that such systems interact with in the open world.

This is a serious problem for Tesla specifically; because their tech can’t function on even poorly maintained roadways. They behave unpredictably to relatively innocuous stimuli and they are sometimes confused by emergency vehicles. This is because they are no where near 80% of the way there. That is where they should start implementation to ensure a minimal amount of safety.

There are some smart people arguing that all they have to be is generally more reliable than humans. This isn’t however being measured; because the environments are being cherry picked. Even if it were the case, instances where it essentially murders someone who is behaving as per expectation it’s going to be expensive and bad, very bad for PR.

This is going to happen; but it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be soon, say in the next few to five years. This is because it’s going to take money to develop it. This means large scale adoption; which in turn means more variety of conditions and more agreeable price points. This is going to be difficult; and the more time that passes the more difficult it will get.

This is one time where Elon is cheating. He’s borrowing from the future; and that’s going to hurt Tesla in the long run. Not a good move at all.

(Electronic sniffing dogs)

That is Pavlovian Conditioning in it’s purest sense.

What would be interesting too is if that car was equipped with the additional base plate.

Remember a few years back when this happened and Tesla told their owners they should get the titanium(?) base plate to protect the battery? It was covered in the news as well, but I’m honestly too lazy to search for the story :smiley:

Anyway, crank windows… Lada maybe? Not sure, also don’t know if they’re available in the US.