so its been about a week since the last post, around the beginning of the month, which is when the logs are scrubbed (copied to archive folder, then emptied or deleted - depending), and even though things where starting to change before then (sudden uptick in sshd attacks), it has become even clearer that something else is going on, as the webserver blocks are way, way down, about a 3rd of what they normally are, while the sshd blocks are up about 300% (if 100 blocks a week were regularly performed).
So whats going on here, is there any way to “devine” what is happening? Well maybe… but its not due to anything related directly to whats in the log files, its more about whats not there, and what we have learned from the last 12 months (yes I did mention starting the project before #devember2021 ).
Most of web server attacks are either:
- from an infected source (part of a command and control network ), or
- command line tools (aka script kiddie attacks )
As it happens, a certain percentage of (normal?) sshd attacks are of a similar groupings (where script kiddie attacks try multiple usernames in rapid succession), along with the regular “security probe” (web) services (note that alot of this data ends up in the wrong hands for monitary gain).
Without taking into account the possibility of the hosting service applying some form of screening, service blocking based on analyrics, or IP region blocks, it appears there was a re-organisation of co-opted “command and control” networks.
Basically, whoever was running their own C+C either lost control of their network, possibly sold their networks, or were going through an organisational change, either way “they are back in business”.
On the webserver side, it is obvious when a “script kiddie” is trying to get in - 80 different url paths from the same IP address. Webserver attacks from compromised units or C+C networks are not like that, they know the urls they are trying to access are device specific so there is at most only one probe (possibly 2) from the same IP address.
Although I say above that webserver attacks are down to a 3rd there regular rate, 20 different IP addresses for a 7 day period is “quite normal”. Those are the sorts of numbers (20-25 per week) I was seeing around the time after I started applying range-blocks.
As mentioned in a couple of previous posts, there looked to be some sort of organisational use of hosting services, particularly rotating them, which may indicate that over the previous 2 months they were using those services again, and since their IP range is blocked, I dont see anything in the log files of the SSFW server.
As a side note, this leads to a problem covered in the initial couple of posts on both this project page, and the original post thread - how to detect “threat level” at the interface, after blocks have been applied, so that “threat response” can be lifted, or made permanant (ie dont check it again).
As you can see there are no real answers here, we are “guestimating” based on previous data, and research of that data, and that is the point at which some form of high level (or AI) analysis-over-time application would come in handy. Without a bigger data set, like that collected by the Internet Storm Centre (ISC), a visualization tool like those used for repository commits might be more practical in the interim.
It is worth noting the a similar “down time” appeared over the Christmas - New Year period. School holidays have just finished in certain parts of the world, but that only accounts for a 2 week period (over the last month), not 2 months.
Well, I guess you might classify this as more of a “gut feeling” assessment, rather than a thoroughly factual based assessment, and some might even say thats just a “knee jerk reaction”.
But it is clear there was a shift about 2 months ago, and there has been another shift again.
EDIT: with the research required for IPv4 range-blocks, there are some details that come through over time, that portray a certain scene .
- certain attacks from South American countries are performed by the same person.
- certain attacks from Southeast Asia are performed by Chinese nationals.
- certain attacks from Ukraine, Crimea, Estonia are performed by Russian supporters.
- Dutch / Holland / Netherlands is still the highest individual attack source vector.
- England and USA are right up there with China and Russia as “threat antaganiosts”.
EDIT2:
I suggest any tool more than visualization, needs to assess not only a larger data set for any given time period, but also need to xref geolocation news story corelations, as it may show why there is an associated shift, when that occurs.
EDIT3:
after checking 50 IP addresses of the 300 newly blocked sshd spam, it appears that the majority of them are from “dial-up” service providers all around the world (200 services in 150 countries) , and those that are not are “hosting” service in Russia or Hong Kong, and to a lesser degree Korea, Sweden, Netherland, UK & US (yes there are a few universities in there), as well as multiple from Isreal, Iceland & Iran.
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