This is the first part of a very interesting article that is easy to read on this subject:
The article has a part II that goes into concrete recommendations but that has not been published on the website yet.
Do you guys hold the hypothesis described under the header "realism" for probable, or do you think it's fake news?
I don't really think the the possibility that the US won't remain a hagemon is highly unlikely due to the petro dollar system, until oil is traded in dollars I don't see this happening.
However china would grow to act as a defacto deterrent to the US dominated global system.
The world is significantly more integrated in economic terms and in terms of information which were missing during the first two " waves".
Personally what I see happening is that there would just be a decrease in the rate of globalization, not a decline of globalization if self and chain becoming a defacto deterrent to the US dominance.
That is a very good point. In fact, the difference with the first two waves is that the money situation is different: the national debt is now also globalized, in that the creditors of the national debt of US and UK are now situated outside of those countries, as are the creditors of the debts of Russia. This is not the case for Germany, Japan, Korea, India and China.
A second big difference, is that the number of super powers is now much higher than in the first two waves, and that they all - except for Japan and Germany - have nuclear missiles of their own. Never has there been this possibility for total destruction before, without any impact on the economy, it's actually become cheap to destroy other countries, except for the mutual destruction part.
I had a solid page and a half spiel about this, saved it on the wrong computer.
TL;DR was globalization will stay, but the face of it will change. Or at least it will stay as long as something like WWIII starts and every single nation on the planet shuts their borders doesn't happen.
Globalization started in the neoliberal era since the 80s is coming to an end because the well is drying up. It was used as a way to boost profitability by finding cheaper labor abroad in foreign markets. Now wages are going to slowly equalize across nations until social upheaval either leads us into barbarism through war (because that will be the response of the elites) or workers in the develop nations establish a socialist economy that can actually manage the massive amount of wealth we create instead of wasting it on wars and letting it rot on the shelves because consumers are too broke to buy anything.
There's also the chains of debt to consider that are paralyzing the economy from the years of accumuluation and bubbles that the market has tried to prop up in order to get people to keep spending. Everyone from students to home owners to people who are so poor they have to finance their purchases at wal-mart to the corporate offices that are going bust to the banks that make out loans to subprime clients. The debt system is grinding itself into paralysis because of the continued need to inject credit into the economy to keep things running and people are starting to feel it. Capitalism is also in a bind because the rate of profitability is trending down because automation eats away at the source of profits: paying workers less than what they generate in total output.
We're living in a historic moment that has no clear path forward.
Just here because of the title.
